Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5094d106c150bd1c1b099fd85d36a10d146994799cf929977d357ad03db25748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 224.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 57c | 165$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 149.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 81.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 80.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 55.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 49.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 49.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 43.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 41.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 39.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 40c | 38.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 31.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 52c | 31.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 69c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 69c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.