MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509def23f12dd75a15d400815c69b98afccc9de3e52794237b11bf9bfb9b9ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 21c | 1,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 759.53$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 523.4$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 305.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 209.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 115.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ede…e99cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 115.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…db19backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 112.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 86.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 75.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 67.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 63.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 51.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 51.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 50.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 46.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…a547backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 36.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 28.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 26.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 19.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.