MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf36453df1da970a0ec5466675472459bf7288d9c9c6f8c05e55d0f1bc478742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 17,578$10,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,371.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 17,547$7,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,352.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 14,663$6,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,211.21 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 9,104$5,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,131.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,024$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.44 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 840.98$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.36 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 764.61$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 758.19$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 757.55$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.57 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 384$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 294$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 267.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 267.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 199$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 178.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 133.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 128$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 125.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 122.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 119$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 114.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 105.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 104.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 91.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 80.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 73.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 67.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…b678backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 61.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 43.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 42.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 42.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 42.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 32.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 29.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 18.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.