MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50a5a90cd7440c6b0610b481749f6db643ab3f1a46f9ec35a5ec7890f800b6ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 50c | 5,956$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.19 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Over | 50c | 5,235$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.64 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 3,021$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 2,776$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 2,702$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,683$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 1,349$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 1,149$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 1,087$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.37 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 890.26$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.85 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 47c | 745$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 675.16$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.23 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf844…ee3cbacked Under | 54c | 537.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 526.65$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 505$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 47c | 471$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.63 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 62c | 424.58$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 365.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 59c | 355.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 324$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 50c | 301.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 50c | 301.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.47 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 66c | 275.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 22c | 266.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 255$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 239.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 22c | 237.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 63c | 215.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Over | 17c | 210.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…3e7ebacked Over | 50c | 202.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 50c | 201$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 191.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…9a1bbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 57.7%75 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 50c | 150.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 50c | 138.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 134.89$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 49c | 128.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 80c | 125.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 69c | 121.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 110.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 65c | 109.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 100.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 34c | 97.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 39c | 96.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 51c | 96.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 50c | 89.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 78.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 42c | 71.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 64c | 67.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 54c | 63.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 61.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 50c | 59.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 38c | 56.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757c…d1bfbacked Over | 50c | 55.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Over | 30c | 47.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 51c | 42.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 54c | 31.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 45c | 25.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.