Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x509fd57d7cfd8355c1d3c927a63f607da27a7f5284de4cdf33bef23703c80f8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RED Canidsof FURIA Esports, RED Canids
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed RED Canids | 55c | 800.01$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports | 45c | 790.01$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.5 | 2,495 | 47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed FURIA Esports | 58c | 270.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed RED Canids | 42c | 269.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.14 | 1,047 | 50.3%527 W · 520 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed FURIA Esports | 50c | 219.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 978 | 54.4%532 W · 446 L | +48.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked RED Canids | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 362 | 46.4%168 W · 194 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e7…f2e5backed FURIA Esports | 56c | 183.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed RED Canids | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked RED Canids | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,024 | 45%461 W · 563 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…4fb7backed FURIA Esports | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked FURIA Esports | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked RED Canids | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc99…e38bbacked FURIA Esports | 77c | 58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked FURIA Esports | 54c | 56.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed FURIA Esports | 64c | 49.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 1,170 | 66.2%774 W · 396 L | +69.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked RED Canids | 46c | 36.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…2ca6backed FURIA Esports | 55c | 32.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…9148backed RED Canids | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f53…12cabacked RED Canids | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed RED Canids | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 161 | 30.4%49 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2dc3backed RED Canids | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…3cdfbacked RED Canids | 38c | 26.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed FURIA Esports | 45c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed RED Canids | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f8…1d2fbacked RED Canids | 58c | 17.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular SeasonFURIA Esports won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 WinnerFURIA Esports won
- LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 WinnerRED Canids won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.