TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof FURIA Esports, RED Canids
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,226
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,226 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids71c7,511$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.861,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9942…f1abbacked FURIA Esports3c6,462$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.72711.4%1 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid+12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed RED Canids40c5,601$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.0130546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed FURIA Esports9c4,932$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.1264247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FURIA Esports74c4,699$3,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,455.231,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked RED Canids53c3,554$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.5466559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked RED Canids39c3,438$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.341,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed RED Canids30c2,888$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.217448.3%84 W · 90 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed RED Canids25c2,500$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.991,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed FURIA Esports54c2,476$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.11,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FURIA Esports40c2,323$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.441,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed FURIA Esports75c2,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked RED Canids60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80083560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed RED Canids24c2,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.991,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ad…a859backed RED Canids78c1,886$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.756170.5%43 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked FURIA Esports1c1,700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed FURIA Esports23c1,600$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9915534.8%54 W · 101 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed RED Canids30c1,581$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.832,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed FURIA Esports16c1,534$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.076719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked FURIA Esports70c1,533$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.159248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed RED Canids51c1,516$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.8526661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdee7…1ad7backed RED Canids65c1,324$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.3912962.8%81 W · 48 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked FURIA Esports37c1,229$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.691,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed FURIA Esports76c1,177$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.3262451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed FURIA Esports54c1,155$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.823053.9%124 W · 106 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed FURIA Esports39c1,152$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.2115352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed RED Canids23c1,110$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.126635%93 W · 173 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked FURIA Esports56c984.64$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.6413354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed FURIA Esports35c969.27$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0221350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked FURIA Esports41c947.31$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.0240741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed FURIA Esports42c912.46$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.481,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked FURIA Esports40c836.92$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2344846.2%207 W · 241 L+1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked FURIA Esports37c811.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed RED Canids26c721.86$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.5726349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed FURIA Esports77c718.36$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.1435442.1%149 W · 205 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked FURIA Esports43c708.23$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7967553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked RED Canids26c680$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.217439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed RED Canids23c680$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.81,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FURIA Esports45c678.43$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.412,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked FURIA Esports74c640$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.626765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Canids53c592.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.981,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed FURIA Esports39c590.95$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.885757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA Esports52c571.01$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.982,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed RED Canids49c568.71$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.041,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed FURIA Esports40c458.57$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5315857.6%91 W · 67 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed RED Canids67c450.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8721861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dee…30b1backed FURIA Esports79c450$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.519663.3%124 W · 72 L+17.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked RED Canids28c400$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4586649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bc…46f8backed RED Canids48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20827340.7%111 W · 162 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked RED Canids62c395.21$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1863352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed RED Canids51c391.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3577746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…3ca3backed RED Canids52c381.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8931150.2%156 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed RED Canids27c367.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.530621.2%65 W · 241 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FURIA Esports16c354.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.982,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed RED Canids23c346$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.421,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac3…6ec2backed RED Canids23c343.83$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.8211856.8%67 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d0…f87ebacked FURIA Esports59c339.42$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20039940.4%161 W · 238 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed RED Canids24c331.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8835542.3%150 W · 205 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…014abacked FURIA Esports10c326.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.533551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+287.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed FURIA Esports69c308.19$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.161,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked FURIA Esports39c306.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed FURIA Esports38c304$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.731,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed FURIA Esports76c301.62$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2364155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked RED Canids80c301.35$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5326164.4%168 W · 93 L+0.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3835…bcacbacked FURIA Esports56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.246459.4%38 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed FURIA Esports40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020644.7%92 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed FURIA Esports52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed RED Canids20c299.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.991,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked RED Canids58c292.32$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.327857.7%45 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RED Canids21c284.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.487844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FURIA Esports34c262.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.611,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked RED Canids55c260.78$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.992,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed FURIA Esports73c242.76$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.221,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed FURIA Esports38c239$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.773,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e75…0dd7backed RED Canids63c230.18$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6333151.7%171 W · 160 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x924d…6cb9backed FURIA Esports54c228.22$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.397753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52b…d547backed FURIA Esports66c226.08$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019054.2%103 W · 87 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed FURIA Esports53c224.61$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010650%53 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed FURIA Esports77c222$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.396452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd9…56cfbacked FURIA Esports38c209.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.812525.6%32 W · 93 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed FURIA Esports46c207.19$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.61,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked FURIA Esports67c202.66$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7827348%131 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed RED Canids68c202.29$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.127461.7%169 W · 105 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed RED Canids22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15628042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…7514backed RED Canids51c195.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7935533.5%119 W · 236 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3f1…cae0backed FURIA Esports60c193.69$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5241947%197 W · 222 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked RED Canids34c182$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5623152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…3373backed FURIA Esports40c180.82$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9311645.7%53 W · 63 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RED Canids59c180.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.521,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed FURIA Esports40c177.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5252743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed FURIA Esports41c176.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1353545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed FURIA Esports21c174.23$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.071,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1df3…9ac3backed RED Canids33c173.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.342055%231 W · 189 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed FURIA Esports18c163.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4163426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xca5f…41f5backed FURIA Esports56c157.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.121155%116 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6202…c297backed FURIA Esports61c150.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.446253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9f…0c25backed FURIA Esports53c150$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9728353%150 W · 133 L+28.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+32.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d94…eb52backed FURIA Esports52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7832345.5%147 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed RED Canids23c149.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4745338%172 W · 281 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed FURIA Esports77c148.23$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1439663.4%251 W · 145 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.