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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,206 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes49c604.29$298 inWon+$306.031612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…06bebacked Yes43c288.1$125 inWon+$162.859328%26 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid+49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c202.35$10 inLost-$10.121516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No45c197.03$90 inLost-$89.571,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c170.49$82 inLost-$82.462,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No8c141.64$12 inLost-$11.8361123.6%144 W · 467 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c134.45$20 inWon+$114.5417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inLost-$44.12,70847.5%1,287 W · 1,421 L+48.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes39c124$48 inWon+$75.661365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No18c113.2$21 inLost-$20.855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c110.98$12 inLost-$12.347,2349.3%675 W · 6,559 L-1,116.6wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c109.43$44 inLost-$44.312,58746.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L-42.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes15c103.92$16 inWon+$87.9227421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes13c100$13 inWon+$86.5424539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No61c66.29$40 inLost-$40.22,62854%1,419 W · 1,209 L-56.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No32c65.7$21 inLost-$21.223,76034%1,277 W · 2,483 L-193.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No76c64.93$49 inLost-$49.274,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No25c61$15 inLost-$15.111,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes24c60$14 inWon+$45.761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes29c54.77$16 inWon+$39.0316626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Yes79c50$40 inWon+$10.53647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost-$153,03631.3%951 W · 2,085 L+40.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5b…0324backed No74c45.63$34 inLost-$33.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…80aabacked Yes57c41.33$24 inWon+$17.675468.5%37 W · 17 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick44cpaid+65.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No77c39.17$30 inLost-$30.1693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes77c37.97$29 inWon+$8.7322171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35af…1ca6backed Yes54c37.16$20 inWon+$17.164070%28 W · 12 L+12.8wins+0.32per pick38cpaid+122%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inLost-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No68c27.99$19 inLost-$19.0538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784a…06c3backed No77c25.97$20 inLost-$2035450.6%179 W · 175 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No47c25.67$12 inLost-$12.1344659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes78c24$19 inWon+$5.197969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No80c20$16 inLost-$15.933,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes64c15.7$10 inWon+$5.741445.4%188 W · 226 L+29.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed No73c15$11 inLost-$10.959453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No78c14$11 inLost-$10.925,21268.3%3,559 W · 1,653 L+70.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.