Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x911711960b9e4b3cf057048731bc494c4affceda10a4753bc1d7749b7722c18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 773.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 26c | 463.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 27c | 453.19$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf2…18e5backed Yes | 20c | 350$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 319.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 304.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 18c | 190.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 183.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…1550backed No | 77c | 169.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 20c | 148.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 144.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 72c | 139.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 131.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 25c | 115.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 76c | 102.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 98.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 96.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 91.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 84.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 79.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 74c | 60.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 26c | 49.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 45.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 74c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.