Tennis · resolved market
Chile Open: Matias Soto vs Vilius Gaubas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50cd6e9c26a084c415022e7c5aeed7d69e6265d23772b80858f9e195b07b5239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gaubasof Soto, Gaubas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Soto | 5c | 10,047$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.11 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…99f6backed Soto | 7c | 7,187$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 36.9%66 W · 113 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Soto | 3c | 5,990$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Soto | 2c | 1,109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Soto | 8c | 1,008$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Soto | 2c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Soto | 6c | 593.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Gaubas | 78c | 378.28$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Soto | 17c | 363.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Soto | 7c | 329.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Gaubas | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Soto | 22c | 214$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Soto | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 23.7%33 W · 106 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Gaubas | 78c | 191.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Soto | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Soto | 22c | 157.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Soto | 20c | 156.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Soto | 8c | 156.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Soto | 11c | 113.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Gaubas | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Soto | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Soto | 17c | 86.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Soto | 22c | 86.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Gaubas | 78c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Soto | 23c | 60.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Soto | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chile Open: Matias Soto vs Vilius Gaubasthis page
- Set Handicap: Gaubas (-1.5) vs Soto (+1.5)Gaubas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.