MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50f032e27fb294155318241db2a9376333bc7688d2c03846eaa1a5109ddbadd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 1,405$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 54c | 794.83$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.62 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 430.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 53c | 401.12$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.53 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 321.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 57c | 232.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.94 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 209.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 199.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 183.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 57c | 153.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 147.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 142.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 43c | 86.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 57c | 84.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…18f9backed Under | 57c | 75.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 44c | 72.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 57c | 56.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 42c | 44.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x104b…ed6bbacked Under | 57c | 33.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 56c | 31.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 56c | 24.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 55c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.