MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e3ab2880494d345287a0976ada3137a936836156cca840132670f1c72dda3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 5,379$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,990.25 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 4,644$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.54 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 2,878$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.58 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 2,222$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.36 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 2,126$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.64 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Boston Red Sox | 19c | 1,001$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.28 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 722.91$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 610.64$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 534.54$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.43 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 314.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Diego Padres | 70c | 294.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 266.56$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 255$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 235.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Boston Red Sox | 20c | 226.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 197.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 113.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 105.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 101.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 101.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 100.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Boston Red Sox | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 92.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 78.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 76.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 73.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 64.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 53.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…516bbacked Boston Red Sox | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 45.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 37.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 26.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Diego Padres | 80c | 19.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.