MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c462428301e43f22b60fd90ccd5c20bdfd8884db2f4e8704586304429a83b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 15,899$7,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,790.44 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,495$3,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,653.07 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 52c | 2,067$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.74 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 51c | 2,063$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.09 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 2,063$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.09 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 51c | 2,063$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.09 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,934$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 51c | 1,602$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.19 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 40c | 849.3$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.72 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 806.64$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 753.94$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.43 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 594$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 551.21$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 65c | 184.02$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 60c | 169.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Over | 48c | 147.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 139.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 125.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 82.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…7ea0backed Over | 49c | 81.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 75.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 51c | 68.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fb…bda1backed Over | 50c | 67.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 35c | 66.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 51c | 41.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5422backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…ac65backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Under | 51c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 25.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…517cbacked Over | 51c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…bad3backed Under | 59c | 24.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…a3c6backed Over | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 64c | 21.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red SoxSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.