Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50faaa5351b6fcd2ff01ed7328fd324774dc4b3c4989d597fb528a075fd61fe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 2,588$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.97 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 17c | 2,448$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 21c | 2,204$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.16 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 17c | 320$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 15c | 149.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 17c | 131.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…1991backed Yes | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 80c | 87.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 81.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 79.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 79.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 17c | 59.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 75c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Atlanta United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.