Champions League · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x511067a7a4c920231d698d1217ec15be546dc9104fe37159e8bee3b9eb1c5e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 4,475$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.17 | 2,101 | 43.6%917 W · 1,184 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 75c | 3,666$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,498$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.04 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…a2cabacked No | 75c | 1,405$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b8…a992backed Yes | 25c | 1,403$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 74c | 1,091$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.79 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 22c | 822.07$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.17 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 25c | 646$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 569$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 26c | 458.35$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 75c | 445.17$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 25c | 410.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 234.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…27b6backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 27c | 188.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 75c | 172.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 124.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 26c | 110.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 27c | 92.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f8…1afcbacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 75c | 89.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 76c | 87.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…616ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Yes | 24c | 59.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 57.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 218 | 60.6%132 W · 86 L | +21.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 75c | 42.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 79 | 24.1%19 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 362 | 60.2%218 W · 144 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…dd6bbacked No | 75c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25?Yes won
- Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.