Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5114057a7220c2f3514f65ddb4b489698e7f1cb602f84da8d03a7a1ab18dc7aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 75c | 1,604$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.67 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…d0cfbacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 25c | 345.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 27c | 299.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 210.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 15c | 139.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 112.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 110.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 11c | 97.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 29c | 76.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 40c | 73.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 16c | 68.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 61c | 58.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 48c | 51.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 49.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 44c | 34.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 57c | 28.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 64c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.