Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f5303f52d4535be060024982c3abd6e1ddcc69fbfb85ac329222563a0de057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 865.47$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.91 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 23c | 298.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 9c | 254.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…5923backed No | 78c | 202.06$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 189.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.93 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes | 29c | 141.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 130.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 112.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 49c | 101.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 97.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Yes | 13c | 93.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +162%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 69.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 23c | 61.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 58.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 72c | 57.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 25c | 55.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 20c | 51.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1f72backed Yes | 20c | 50.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 56c | 44.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 78c | 42.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 39.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 38.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 57c | 32.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 68c | 29.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 74c | 24.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 80c | 23.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 57c | 21.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 75c | 13.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.