Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x760b85eb6815f6c92134c5ac33a19983c2162352c6e24de0364f76ba0b2894a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,530$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 1c | 1,294$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 639.64$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 45c | 587.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.06 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 52c | 476.03$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.42 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 46c | 467.98$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.51 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 64c | 350.64$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 45c | 276.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 48c | 196$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 58c | 189.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 61c | 180.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 46c | 135.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…9b40backed Yes | 48c | 126.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 98.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 53c | 86.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 54c | 74.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 51c | 69.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 43c | 69.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 54c | 67.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 64.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 40c | 62.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 56c | 53.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 43c | 51.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 45c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 51c | 43.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 35c | 43.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 35c | 42.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 41.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed No | 31c | 40.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 39.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 49c | 38.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 40c | 36.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 67c | 36.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c0b5backed Yes | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…d8e9backed Yes | 53c | 35.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes | 55c | 35.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 51c | 33.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 51c | 32.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 60c | 29.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 37c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 55c | 28.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 54c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 57c | 26.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd831…cc54backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.