Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Murray State Racers vs. Belmont Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x511693e0b649c1f55811beeed94df3e539b8dd14bb33ae863d2dbb92052a4e7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belmont Bruinsof Murray State Racers, Belmont Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Murray State Racers | 10c | 3,138$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Belmont Bruins | 66c | 1,568$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.08 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Murray State Racers | 32c | 1,449$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.69 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Belmont Bruins | 60c | 1,178$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.12 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Murray State Racers | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Murray State Racers | 40c | 341.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.62 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Belmont Bruins | 62c | 299.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Murray State Racers | 38c | 268.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…b033backed Murray State Racers | 39c | 256.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Belmont Bruins | 65c | 249.93$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Murray State Racers | 38c | 166$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Belmont Bruins | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Belmont Bruins | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Belmont Bruins | 62c | 64.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 64.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Belmont Bruins | 61c | 56.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Belmont Bruins | 63c | 56.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Murray State Racers | 39c | 49.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Murray State Racers | 39c | 43.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Belmont Bruins | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Belmont Bruins | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Belmont Bruins | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Belmont Bruins | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.