NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Flyers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512795bc0cbcd67b18ffd4d83aa3f262779cadcae9690a0ebfbb89c212400d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flyersof Penguins, Flyers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1c9…96d9backed Penguins | 47c | 20,000$9,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,389.82 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Flyers | 53c | 10,035$5,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,711.4 | 228 | 42.5%97 W · 131 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Penguins | 45c | 6,160$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.11 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…b76fbacked Flyers | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Flyers | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Flyers | 52c | 3,081$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.27 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Penguins | 33c | 2,974$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.32 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Flyers | 78c | 2,221$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.62 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…22e9backed Penguins | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…d206backed Flyers | 53c | 2,043$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins | 1c | 2,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…a557backed Penguins | 44c | 1,999$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ad…7f76backed Flyers | 56c | 1,999$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Flyers | 55c | 1,385$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.94 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Flyers | 53c | 1,345$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.48 | 362 | 42%152 W · 210 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Flyers | 53c | 1,205$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.21 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Flyers | 56c | 999.9$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.96 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Flyers | 69c | 801.43$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.43 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Flyers | 53c | 568$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.96 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Penguins | 45c | 549.23$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.17 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Penguins | 45c | 499.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Penguins | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…91c4backed Flyers | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Penguins | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be7…a41bbacked Penguins | 46c | 204.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Flyers | 53c | 186.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Penguins | 18c | 163.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Flyers | 57c | 143.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Flyers | 53c | 142$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Penguins | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Penguins | 47c | 100.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Flyers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Penguins | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Flyers | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Flyers | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e42…f833backed Penguins | 44c | 95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3002…a7dcbacked Flyers | 57c | 94.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked Penguins | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 157 | 30.6%48 W · 109 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3585…1595backed Flyers | 56c | 76.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Flyers | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +17.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Penguins | 32c | 73.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Penguins | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47d…c6acbacked Penguins | 48c | 70.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Flyers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Flyers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec9…8ef2backed Flyers | 53c | 64.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Flyers | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 284 | 40.1%114 W · 170 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…18b7backed Flyers | 53c | 55.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…cca3backed Flyers | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…8a3fbacked Penguins | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…c417backed Penguins | 43c | 49.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…cd8cbacked Flyers | 58c | 49.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…d9b3backed Flyers | 53c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…4a16backed Penguins | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Penguins | 47c | 47.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Penguins | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…b553backed Penguins | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015a…5e77backed Penguins | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Flyers | 55c | 41.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…f2afbacked Flyers | 57c | 38.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…1bb4backed Flyers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Penguins | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…b415backed Penguins | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…1d32backed Flyers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Flyers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c57…b876backed Flyers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…5675backed Flyers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…695ebacked Flyers | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…82dfbacked Penguins | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3996…a959backed Flyers | 57c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…eeacbacked Flyers | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…7ed3backed Flyers | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcb…4220backed Flyers | 57c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Flyers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Flyers | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.