Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x514b36d5a48c1384e4ac7a79bbeb55a1de59c23286866ee7042cf28fabd48183
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 414.04$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 267.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 201.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 159.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 34c | 138.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 68c | 128.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 114.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 104.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 31c | 99.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 83.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 80.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 74.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 65.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 64.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 60.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 56.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 40.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 39.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 26c | 39.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 78c | 37.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 38c | 34.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 28.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 73c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 73c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 65c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.