Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba037f025ad56da0febce196eabdbbd7a143d2aba9eec9f42944645950759300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 264.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 245.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 216.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 153.15$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…4a1bbacked Yes | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 118.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 23c | 106.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 101.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 19c | 85.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 83.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 78.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 30c | 65.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 65.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 79c | 63.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 55.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 29c | 51.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 48.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 39.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 77c | 34.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 27.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 79c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.