Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91f35b908a0d50a1034ee6093e48882e5f7f76b14d907be3645458a0bc35ddd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 275.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 189.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 162.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 145.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 123.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 109.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 39c | 100.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 58c | 99.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 59c | 91.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 75.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 20c | 70.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 67.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 32c | 64.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 54.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 52.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 50.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 49.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 45.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 36c | 41.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 40.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 37c | 38.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 49c | 35.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 49c | 30.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 76c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 67c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbc…d2e1backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 23.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 22.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 21.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 15.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or below on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.