CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs HOTU (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5154364602c2cced3a5582334a758a17c7ba8fa00da3677261461ea99d3b1a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU | 14c | 16,706$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338.78 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked HOTU | 15c | 15,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked HOTU | 14c | 9,849$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.86 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HOTU | 11c | 2,800$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.98 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed HOTU | 14c | 2,264$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.9 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed HOTU | 15c | 1,681$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed HOTU | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed HOTU | 14c | 1,666$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked HOTU | 15c | 1,294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked HOTU | 15c | 1,233$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed HOTU | 14c | 1,070$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed HOTU | 16c | 940.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HOTU | 15c | 858.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked HOTU | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Vitality | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed HOTU | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Vitality | 77c | 374.55$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed HOTU | 13c | 358.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed HOTU | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked HOTU | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed HOTU | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…9766backed HOTU | 22c | 136.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HOTU | 15c | 113.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked HOTU | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Vitality | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Vitality | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked HOTU | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Vitality | 77c | 76.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.