Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bolzano: Sandro Kopp vs Federico Arnaboldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a3a16863e58ced417b82dfb33f29ed94d331128b5694ef0ea1c5290c05f188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sandro Koppof Sandro Kopp, Federico Arnaboldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Sandro Kopp | 65c | 7,400$4,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,558.56 | 254 | 53.1%135 W · 119 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Federico Arnaboldi | 34c | 4,223$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.37 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Federico Arnaboldi | 12c | 1,527$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b26ebacked Federico Arnaboldi | 7c | 1,444$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Federico Arnaboldi | 35c | 967.91$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.33 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Federico Arnaboldi | 34c | 856.33$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Sandro Kopp | 76c | 767.86$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.86 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Federico Arnaboldi | 36c | 600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 34c | 573.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 7c | 324.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Sandro Kopp | 69c | 209.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 192 | 53.1%102 W · 90 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…cf5fbacked Federico Arnaboldi | 7c | 165.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Federico Arnaboldi | 31c | 163$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Federico Arnaboldi | 15c | 88.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Federico Arnaboldi | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Sandro Kopp | 69c | 39.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Federico Arnaboldi | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Federico Arnaboldi | 35c | 28.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Sandro Kopp | 67c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 497 | 49.9%248 W · 249 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Federico Arnaboldi | 35c | 28.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Sandro Kopp | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Sandro Kopp | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.