Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51b541b23bbca13f2604590b7596c48f29047d78a8854c9ba19d655f6c927405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 64c | 1,864$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.64 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 31c | 1,631$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.83 | 2,585 | 40%1,035 W · 1,550 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 23c | 1,438$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 31c | 835.88$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.88 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 398.17$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.23 | 1,529 | 54.9%840 W · 689 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 234.17$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…56c0backed Under | 46c | 212.93$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 182.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 21c | 179.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 76c | 131.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 1,656 | 50.8%841 W · 815 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 118$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 2,036 | 54.2%1,104 W · 932 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 60c | 98.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 22c | 77.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…a56fbacked Over | 33c | 66.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…6d55backed Over | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 23c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…0d2bbacked Under | 71c | 49.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 74c | 39.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 39.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 1,266 | 50.2%635 W · 631 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 23.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,337 | 56.5%756 W · 581 L | +64.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7c…9e02backed Under | 74c | 21.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 58c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 381 | 59.1%225 W · 156 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Over | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 70c | 14.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.