Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09a8785b68e5cf92fae839a9c3aa6ed3cef71111b139064330d252bd2020d057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Under | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 2,915$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 42c | 717.22$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.99 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 42c | 700$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 49c | 615.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 42c | 499.97$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.98 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 42c | 399.98$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 42c | 299.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 42c | 260$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 42c | 260$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 58c | 258.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 206.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 58c | 170.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 182 | 56%102 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 42c | 156$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 80c | 150.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 66 | 92.4%61 W · 5 L | +17.8wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Over | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 42c | 140$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 127.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Under | 20c | 89.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Over | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fe…1471backed Under | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 76.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 42c | 74.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 41c | 68.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 65.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 47c | 63.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 55c | 62.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 56c | 59.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 55c | 54.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Under | 35c | 40.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 57c | 38.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…f050backed Under | 58c | 33.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 39c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 88 | 6.8%6 W · 82 L | -22.0wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…453cbacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 58c | 19.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 71c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.