MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51cec2bfe15a890c190ce51c3a287a12abdc442178817aba6293c72df1cb0d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Over | 54c | 4,150$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.25 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,858$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 45c | 1,098$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.9 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed Under | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 590$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 423.73$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 395.17$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 317.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Under | 48c | 216.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 46c | 146.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 68.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 55c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 44c | 55.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 47c | 54.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 25c | 50.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 44c | 35.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.