MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe241c931826ed2658fd4daafbb08571bd2321f8ae53d3a1b53e8afe5cde4448d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 45c | 692.78$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.75 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…ba85backed Over | 50c | 456$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 455.07$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.56 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 447.29$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 306.55$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 284$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Under | 54c | 279$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 55c | 162.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Under | 57c | 117.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 102$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 92.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Over | 45c | 82.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 60.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.