Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e3b26af919319a3cd272b543159db3f4d2092580309d733e1964b1f809b517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 15c | 290.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 58c | 204.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 117.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 116.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 47c | 113.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 49c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 64.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 255 | 58.8%150 W · 105 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 27c | 59.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 52.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed No | 58c | 46.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,146 | 57.1%654 W · 492 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…4904backed Yes | 44c | 39.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 44c | 33.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 426 | 45.1%192 W · 234 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 27.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 555 | 58.7%326 W · 229 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 226 | 58.4%132 W · 94 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 65c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 477 | 62.7%299 W · 178 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…d603backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba76…b233backed No | 62c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 19.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.