Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51f994da7fe00e56bb3048eda99e5ffff204d3c78d9a77d8fb5390db2dadef35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PlayTimeof PARIVISION, PlayTime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked PlayTime | 53c | 3,906$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.89 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…afe6backed PARIVISION | 47c | 3,834$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed PlayTime | 53c | 599.97$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.99 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION | 42c | 334.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked PlayTime | 58c | 334.83$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked PARIVISION | 47c | 270.21$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked PARIVISION | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592c…ee32backed PlayTime | 55c | 148.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed PARIVISION | 47c | 107.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked PlayTime | 49c | 99.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed PARIVISION | 45c | 87.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed PARIVISION | 51c | 82.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 44c | 71.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked PlayTime | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed PARIVISION | 42c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed PARIVISION | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked PARIVISION | 47c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed PARIVISION | 47c | 22.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.