Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521fff979e90ee249ced63273234bcbea268d17d4db63c783b930402dd9f91e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 4,036$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.51 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 52c | 852.71$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.27 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 43c | 806.94$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.12 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 398.69$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 40c | 196$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 46c | 194.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 42c | 190$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 177$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 59c | 126.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 47c | 101.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 25c | 94.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 70c | 75.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 45c | 75.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 62.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 51c | 59.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b8…5c77backed Over | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 56c | 53.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 65c | 52.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 37c | 51.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 56c | 46.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 71c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 64c | 19.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 62c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.