College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida State (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x523585def6cd66509b833ed458fdca58a806cfceb5fa12d76deb5c04989ed32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburghof Florida State, Pittsburgh
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Pittsburgh | 51c | 73,165$37,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,870.22 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Florida State | 49c | 48,129$23,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,713.3 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Florida State | 49c | 34,500$16,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,905 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Pittsburgh | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh | 50c | 4,797$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.74 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pittsburgh | 53c | 2,750$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.5 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida State | 47c | 2,200$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Florida State | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pittsburgh | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Florida State | 1c | 1,855$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Pittsburgh | 52c | 1,273$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.05 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Florida State | 48c | 1,086$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.13 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Florida State | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Pittsburgh | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Florida State | 47c | 568$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.96 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Florida State | 48c | 450.45$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Florida State | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Pittsburgh | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Pittsburgh | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Florida State | 48c | 142$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Florida State | 50c | 100.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Pittsburgh | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Florida State | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Florida State | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida State (-10.5)this page
- O/U 57.5Over won
- Pittsburgh vs. Florida StatePittsburgh won
- Pittsburgh vs. Florida State: O/U 58.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.