NHL · resolved market
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x525e8bfef61dcabe129a91055dc370443d1279257510b46ca27ede44d29cd8d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Metallurg Magnitogorsk, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68f0…fdf8backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 450.06$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…c162backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 427.8$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 40c | 389.75$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 43c | 233.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 6c | 219.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 492 | 49.6%244 W · 248 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…25d3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 58c | 86.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 42c | 85.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 51c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.