Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52688cbceda8cb0b2e75d08daab6a360c03c4704d13d2c5b4974e552aef3c6c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 483.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 57c | 350.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 35c | 270.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 250.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 244.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 234.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 11c | 227.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 194.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 27c | 192.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 73c | 191.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 7c | 188.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 185.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 163.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 149.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 8c | 141.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 139.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 137.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 43c | 109.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 107.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 45c | 97.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 90.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…b428backed No | 76c | 79.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 72.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 66.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 31c | 62.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 37c | 61.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 53.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 25c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 49.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 46.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 42c | 44.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 43c | 42.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 45c | 41.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 59c | 32.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 64c | 29.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 65c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 44c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 51c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 59c | 23.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 51c | 19.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 67c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ec…4d4cbacked No | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.