Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3b6c27a608af48110bcb9130f2ea1a8c67464fa8b678966796fcd39b886f3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 702.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 23c | 551.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 11c | 312.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 249.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 233.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 8c | 232.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 225.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 199.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 8c | 170.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 142.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 19c | 136.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 131.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 20c | 127.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 30c | 124.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…f0bdbacked Yes | 12c | 97.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 79.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 66.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 39c | 57.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 33.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b5…326dbacked No | 75c | 32.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 79c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.