Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95410cfcd90884bd0c232d16f66b47375909867836bfad1e126541ec24c4d944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 1,829$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 5c | 431$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 15c | 357.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 72c | 224.46$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 13c | 170.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 39c | 160.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 159.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6862backed No | 66c | 155.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 147.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 136.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 119.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 117.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 37c | 117.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 116.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 43c | 108.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 47c | 101.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 98.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…51a4backed No | 54c | 90.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 52c | 81.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 65c | 73.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 71.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 66.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 58.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 57.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 67c | 56.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 27c | 51.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 50.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 49.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 47.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 51c | 41.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 40.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 39.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…c777backed Yes | 40c | 37.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 37c | 37.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 35.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 30.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 28.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…935abacked Yes | 42c | 27.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 49c | 26.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 76c | 23.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed No | 71c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 63c | 20.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 62c | 20.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 79c | 13.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.