Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5271069cee170de59324490ad0aee27e1022f9787819bdf6396810c820dea442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, Disguised
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked FlyQuest | 36c | 21,462$7,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,755.02 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Disguised | 64c | 20,000$12,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,799.99 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed Disguised | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Disguised | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Disguised | 65c | 599.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 1,525 | 50.6%771 W · 754 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Disguised | 64c | 545.22$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.94 | 528 | 48.9%258 W · 270 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d25…835ebacked Disguised | 66c | 519.58$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed FlyQuest | 47c | 519.15$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.16 | 922 | 54%498 W · 424 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Disguised | 35c | 497.49$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…a86ebacked FlyQuest | 35c | 489.12$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.93 | 264 | 48.5%128 W · 136 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Disguised | 65c | 340.24$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 597 | 50.4%301 W · 296 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed FlyQuest | 30c | 316.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.53 | 1,182 | 44.8%530 W · 652 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed FlyQuest | 30c | 299.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 1,802 | 51.2%923 W · 879 L | +53.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked FlyQuest | 35c | 211.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.42 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed FlyQuest | 35c | 201.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed Disguised | 69c | 184.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…86b4backed Disguised | 70c | 181.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 191 | 57.1%109 W · 82 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Disguised | 70c | 165.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 349 | 45.6%159 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Disguised | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 536 | 49.8%267 W · 269 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…9738backed Disguised | 69c | 153.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FlyQuest | 34c | 151.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Disguised | 69c | 136.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 861 | 44.1%380 W · 481 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Disguised | 70c | 117.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked FlyQuest | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked FlyQuest | 36c | 103.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked FlyQuest | 36c | 84.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed FlyQuest | 33c | 84.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed FlyQuest | 35c | 81.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Disguised | 66c | 74.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…6ee4backed FlyQuest | 36c | 68.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FlyQuest | 31c | 64.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Disguised | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FlyQuest | 29c | 59.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 1,611 | 48.4%780 W · 831 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Disguised | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Disguised | 67c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 495 | 49.1%243 W · 252 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed FlyQuest | 35c | 44.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…7b9dbacked FlyQuest | 34c | 43.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked FlyQuest | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked FlyQuest | 35c | 41.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Disguised | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Disguised | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 416 | 51.2%213 W · 203 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Disguised | 68c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 153 | 56.9%87 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Disguised | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed FlyQuest | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 420 | 55.2%232 W · 188 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4091…3d09backed Disguised | 68c | 15.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Disguised won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonFlyQuest won
- LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.