Lol · resolved market

Games Total: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213c725b138a4d34eca13afda711e4807aee301956353ac59051148d0acb9146

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,487
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,487 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x509d…0a6bbacked Under	56c	29,595$16,534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,061.17	670	56.9%381 W · 289 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over	45c	15,006$6,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,803.24	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Over	43c	6,012$2,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,585.6	160	47.5%76 W · 84 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Over	44c	5,710$2,512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,512.4	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Over	45c	5,282$2,353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,352.64	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-6.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over	41c	2,361$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$962.78	508	48.4%246 W · 262 L	+13.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed Over	45c	2,281$1,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,035.3	89	29.2%26 W · 63 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Over	43c	2,246$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.8	342	50.6%173 W · 169 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Over	44c	1,520$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$668.79	525	38.9%204 W · 321 L	+18.0wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Under	54c	972.4$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447.3	2,178	53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L	+61.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa009…fae7backed Over	46c	963.39$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Over	45c	907.61$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.9	1,232	49.4%609 W · 623 L	+13.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Under	56c	782.36$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.24	119	59.7%71 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Under	55c	710.92$391 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.13	1,097	52.3%574 W · 523 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Over	45c	626.6$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.97	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under	54c	539.68$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.25	186	53.2%99 W · 87 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under	55c	518.99$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.28	1,802	51.2%923 W · 879 L	+53.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Over	45c	500.1$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.05	246	43.1%106 W · 140 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Over	46c	378.63$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.17	109	47.7%52 W · 57 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Over	45c	363.78$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.91	197	52.8%104 W · 93 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked Under	55c	353.82$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.22	215	59.5%128 W · 87 L	+7.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Under	56c	312.53$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.51	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…7adebacked Under	54c	301.44$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.66	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under	54c	287.2$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.11	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Under	55c	276.33$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.35	101	65.3%66 W · 35 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Under	55c	276.33$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.35	78	65.4%51 W · 27 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x449f…f386backed Over	48c	266.06$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.62	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under	55c	258$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.1	103	55.3%57 W · 46 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Under	54c	234.42$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.71	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under	55c	221.05$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.47	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Over	46c	219.18$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.82	47	34%16 W · 31 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed Over	46c	214.9$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.86	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d18…3d29backed Over	48c	201.83$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.88	248	45.2%112 W · 136 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60c…d2e2backed Under	55c	194.6$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.57	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c8…86b4backed Under	54c	194.48$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.46	191	57.1%109 W · 82 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac4…cdddbacked Over	52c	185.93$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.63	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Under	54c	184.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.84	389	50.9%198 W · 191 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed Over	45c	183.73$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.68	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ca…3b08backed Under	54c	162.69$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.84	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under	54c	151.69$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.78	536	49.8%267 W · 269 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Under	54c	151.26$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.58	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6041…3326backed Over	46c	149.48$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	164	52.4%86 W · 78 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over	45c	145.42$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.44	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e2…6c60backed Over	53c	139.03$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.2	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2763…7d40backed Over	45c	130.71$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.82	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Under	56c	127.54$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.12	111	61.3%68 W · 43 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x108c…122dbacked Under	56c	127.54$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.12	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8088…24dabacked Over	47c	102.72$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.41	211	40.8%86 W · 125 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under	56c	102.23$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.98	383	58%222 W · 161 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed Under	56c	102.23$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.98	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	249	41.4%103 W · 146 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	43c	94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.16	608	49.5%301 W · 307 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Under	55c	93.41$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.03	145	61.4%89 W · 56 L	+7.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Over	46c	87.08$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	1,241	34.7%431 W · 810 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56e4…6ee4backed Under	55c	82.71$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.22	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over	40c	70.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	1,730	29.5%510 W · 1,220 L	-123.2wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Under	56c	65.23$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.7	183	56.8%104 W · 79 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Under	56c	65.23$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.7	268	56.7%152 W · 116 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac02…b942backed Over	43c	61.23$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Under	55c	53.7$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.16	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Under	56c	52.57$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.13	137	59.9%82 W · 55 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under	56c	52.57$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.13	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Under	54c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	61	49.2%30 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	52c	48.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.47	2,707	35.9%972 W · 1,735 L	-152.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7894…7b9dbacked Under	55c	48.65$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.89	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98dc…e3f0backed Under	57c	42.83$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.47	153	60.1%92 W · 61 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under	65c	42.67$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	416	51.2%213 W · 203 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over	46c	35.8$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	143	60.8%87 W · 56 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x990a…a9cebacked Under	54c	32.23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.82	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Under	55c	30.16$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.57	153	56.9%87 W · 66 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under	48c	28.78$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.97	1,368	37.7%516 W · 852 L	-6.8wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x41b1…b470backed Over	52c	27.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-9.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Over	43c	25.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x70b6…f93fbacked Under	55c	24.33$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.95	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c7…264fbacked Over	48c	24.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	280	40%112 W · 168 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f81…d3c2backed Over	49c	22.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	60cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Under	54c	21.59$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.93	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4daa…8923backed Under	56c	20.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	38	71.1%27 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Under	54c	19.93$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.17	357	55.7%199 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe7…24a0backed Under	56c	19.47$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	38	73.7%28 W · 10 L	+3.6wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
First Blood in Game 2?Disguised won
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)FlyQuest won
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonFlyQuest won
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
LoL: Disguised vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Games Total: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event