MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Mets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52817f7f88f0312afa282e8d3e79bf6de151185e87d498d634d3e91b0f3a4d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 65c | 5,218$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.3 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 35c | 4,600$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Over | 66c | 220$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 38c | 150.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…8b1abacked Under | 38c | 49.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 34c | 49.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…08d7backed Over | 66c | 49.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marlins vs. Mets: O/U 6.5this page
- Marlins vs. MetsMarlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.