Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5298b84a4ac9959da9122e79276e2d7b095b34a95d23029e4a87c96c469bb821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Schalke 04of FC Schalke 04, SC Preußen Münster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SC Preußen Münster | 67c | 700.25$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.58 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed FC Schalke 04 | 35c | 249.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.18 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked FC Schalke 04 | 37c | 149.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 128.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed FC Schalke 04 | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked FC Schalke 04 | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Schalke 04 | 36c | 94.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Schalke 04 | 66c | 62.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…bb2fbacked FC Schalke 04 | 35c | 48.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked FC Schalke 04 | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed SC Preußen Münster | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked SC Preußen Münster | 64c | 23.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed SC Preußen Münster | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked SC Preußen Münster | 64c | 23.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked SC Preußen Münster | 64c | 20.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.