Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84caa90c0b429457a9fc63e52244d2fdcd4718b8197187f3fc435b301690443a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 33c | 1,666$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.15 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 588.26$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 75c | 581.4$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.35 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 25c | 549.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 59c | 269$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 110.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 109.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 98.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 68c | 76.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over | 68c | 53.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Over | 68c | 44.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 68c | 43.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…f35dbacked Over | 77c | 38.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 67c | 35.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Under | 31c | 32.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 69c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 69c | 28.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 65c | 20.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.