Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a839602adf287689222106e80602ce3dbc89c4c7673f6cda29991d56d79e6fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 73c | 688.66$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 27c | 500$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 27c | 483.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 344.46$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 251$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 73c | 243.72$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 182.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 27c | 141$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 136.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 27c | 98.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 75c | 78.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 50c | 69.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 65.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 30c | 58.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 51.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 50.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 50c | 44.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.