Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ddbd88d36927d7481f8588d91b5e0b470b80ca31f4036e43768ae674f8cc55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 40c | 2,476$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.4 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 59c | 1,746$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…ac8ebacked Over | 41c | 1,739$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 1,179$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.55 | 1,207 | 43.5%525 W · 682 L | -14.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…72e7backed Under | 61c | 612.87$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.02 | 239 | 46%110 W · 129 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over | 40c | 599.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 1,007 | 47.9%482 W · 525 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Over | 39c | 445.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 411 | 33.8%139 W · 272 L | -28.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…7b74backed Over | 40c | 442.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.91 | 487 | 63.2%308 W · 179 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e84fbacked Over | 40c | 337.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Over | 39c | 221.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 193 | 42%81 W · 112 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 40c | 202.24$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 331 | 39.9%132 W · 199 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…b819backed Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 62c | 162.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 569 | 49.4%281 W · 288 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 38c | 146.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 40c | 106.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 39c | 88.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 62c | 81.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 356 | 39.3%140 W · 216 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…77e3backed Over | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Over | 40c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…6791backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 45cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…673ebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…de53backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…cb72backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Heretics won
- Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5)Karmine Corp won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonKarmine Corp won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Game 1 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics - Game 2 WinnerKarmine Corp won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.