College Football · resolved market
Wyoming vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530c70511da29dc426b623e64f27bd0c59b77c5f96ed5a75f2ba0cf4785e5965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof Wyoming, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed San Diego State | 79c | 31,757$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,757.45 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed San Diego State | 79c | 12,500$9,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,625 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Wyoming | 21c | 10,484$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.59 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wyoming | 21c | 10,400$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.94 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wyoming | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…91e4backed Wyoming | 24c | 4,438$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wyoming | 21c | 4,412$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.08 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Wyoming | 22c | 4,016$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.42 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Wyoming | 24c | 3,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wyoming | 11c | 3,272$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.32 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Wyoming | 21c | 2,361$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked San Diego State | 77c | 2,284$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.36 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Wyoming | 27c | 1,482$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.88 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Wyoming | 5c | 1,347$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Wyoming | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego State | 78c | 820.13$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wyoming | 24c | 747$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.26 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Wyoming | 21c | 708.24$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Wyoming | 4c | 534.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…ac60backed Wyoming | 40c | 501$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked San Diego State | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Diego State | 68c | 420.31$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked San Diego State | 78c | 322.29$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Wyoming | 20c | 293.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wyoming | 21c | 262.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed San Diego State | 74c | 242.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Wyoming | 7c | 201.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Wyoming | 14c | 173.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed San Diego State | 79c | 166$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked San Diego State | 72c | 156.13$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Wyoming | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Wyoming | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Wyoming | 21c | 149.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…95ffbacked San Diego State | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…cb5cbacked Wyoming | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Wyoming | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Wyoming | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked San Diego State | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wyoming | 23c | 56.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed San Diego State | 79c | 50.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked San Diego State | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Wyoming | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Wyoming | 23c | 44.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked San Diego State | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed San Diego State | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…93eebacked San Diego State | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed San Diego State | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbc…93ebbacked San Diego State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed San Diego State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…ed44backed San Diego State | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wyoming vs. San Diego Statethis page
- Spread: San Diego State (-10.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.