MLB · resolved market
Brewers vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5337188137ec902b5fb734bed4bb7ae828081205ac717127fdc352bacbb98622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 56c | 3,667$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 1,590$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.52 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,490$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 57c | 1,203$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.47 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.99 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Over | 46c | 815.74$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c2…0f74backed Over | 46c | 717.39$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 30c | 597.36$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Under | 49c | 494$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Over | 43c | 460$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 46c | 367.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.39 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Under | 55c | 212.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Under | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Over | 48c | 146.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 148 | 64.2%95 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 52c | 146.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked Over | 61c | 34.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brewers vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Brewers vs. RangersRangers won
- Spread: Brewers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.