Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535dc7189cae8a0988da16d83bd23da44e692057ac833fa38cc80b610d01cee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 63c | 363.11$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.14 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 18c | 310.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 67c | 268.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 249.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 243.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 187.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 174.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 42c | 114.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 18c | 114.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 18c | 107.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 91.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 14c | 87.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 59c | 67.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 46c | 66.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…7ac1backed No | 18c | 66.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 65.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 70c | 63.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 33c | 54.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 54.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 53.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 54c | 46.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 49c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 53c | 39.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 58c | 36.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 68c | 30.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 56c | 26.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 56c | 26.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 46c | 26.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 49c | 25.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 24.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 55c | 22.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked No | 51c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 66c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.