F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5374a4df17ebe255e6b73943b2bda7505c31538703ecdac4454dd97d5bf389e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x758a…9f48backed No | 0c | 12,660$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 36c | 499.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.42 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 34c | 455.58$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.35 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked Yes | 47c | 301.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 41c | 239.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…689abacked Yes | 43c | 195.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 23c | 132.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b8…f114backed No | 10c | 112.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 37c | 101.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054f…875fbacked Yes | 40c | 75.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb854…d139backed Yes | 47c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 57c | 49.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 47c | 49.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…1e96backed Yes | 44c | 45.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b5…7c74backed Yes | 39c | 27.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.