F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italy GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63f4ac5815f75ab46c607ce1d10ada802f0d7c42402686b290dcf61ce8405a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcacf…a179backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…2ff5backed Yes | 0c | 12,290$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,407$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.28 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 19c | 900$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 80c | 859.54$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.91 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…4513backed No | 80c | 660.46$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 21c | 596.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…0772backed Yes | 33c | 364.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 30c | 337.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 21c | 330$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…f03dbacked Yes | 38c | 314.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 6c | 235$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 62c | 203$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 179.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…5a7cbacked Yes | 18c | 166.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…94ffbacked Yes | 36c | 159.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…413cbacked Yes | 7c | 139.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 25c | 130$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 35c | 120.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…9f31backed Yes | 37c | 107.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…927abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…955cbacked Yes | 12c | 93.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…1e96backed Yes | 21c | 93.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 80.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…76febacked Yes | 28c | 72.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…5318backed Yes | 22c | 69.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…72edbacked No | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…c364backed Yes | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…7181backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 24c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…5f7abacked Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Yes | 68c | 29.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6968…447bbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 79c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italy GP pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Italy GP pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italy GP pole?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.