South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5394f1c5c2f0ca8a976c759630c644c26d58878a294162fcce78ee42535532a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked No | 77c | 3,769$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.96 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 77c | 2,993$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.38 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 2,363$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 3c | 800.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 23c | 730.66$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 482.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Yes | 23c | 453$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…93ffbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 78c | 393.15$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 23c | 392.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 229.63$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 23c | 116.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 85.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 23c | 74.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 23c | 74.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 78c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Recoleta FC vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-08-18?Yes won
- Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-08-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.