UFC · resolved market
Will Dooho Choi win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539adbf11e1a65e50299f1a298c40743cec57ddda9744ceeed70831e7907cfa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 60c | 3,025$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.31 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,842$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…bcdabacked Yes | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 71c | 513$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.93 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…740abacked Yes | 30c | 502.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.49 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…adc5backed No | 80c | 484.09$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 71c | 390$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Yes | 29c | 341.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…0fc6backed Yes | 29c | 325.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +195.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 29c | 298.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +195.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 70c | 238.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed Yes | 28c | 72.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…2f0bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 35c | 32.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…f21bbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed Yes | 64c | 27.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked No | 80c | 23.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…fa1cbacked No | 73c | 22.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dooho Choi win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)Dooho Choi won
- Will Daniel Santos win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.